Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
