Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
